Troop movements are reversible. Construction of a tactical bridge in an unpopulated radioactive ecological reserve 4 miles from the border is not a bluff. Nor is it a joint military exercise with Belarus purely used by Russia to intimidate Ukraine. It is an invasion plan into which resources are being poured.
Please translate this and forward to everyone you know inside Russia, so that the people there will have exposure to something other than state media focused on false flag events in Donbas. These are an intentional distraction.
You don’t build something like this unless you are intending to use it. The nearest bridge is at the city of Mazyr about 45 miles northwest of this site. The bridge is inside a large ecological preserve associated with Chernobyl due to radioactivity. There is absolutely no civilian purpose for the bridge. There are no population centers or even villages that it serves.
As you can see from map below, the bridge doesn’t go anywhere useful within Belarus. It is on no major road. The Prypyat River cuts across to the northwest. To access the western side of Kyiv it must be crossed. The closer to the border it is crossed, the shorter the distance to Kyiv. From there the Russian Army will skirt to the west of the Chernobyl region, joining the main road at Ivankiv where there is an existing bridge over the Teteriv River. From there multiple roads lead into the west side of Kyiv, which straddles the Dneiper River.
This is evil. Pure evil. Not distilled in so fine a form since Idi Amin or Hitler.
Today Ukraine’s president Zelensky said, “We don’t need your sanctions after the bombardment will happen and after our country will be fired at or after we will have no borders, or after we will have no economy … Why would we need those sanctions then?”
I agree and have thought this for some time, but he is the first leader with the guts to say it. Western leaders, including Biden, are no better than Neville Chamberlin. Neither is Trump. He’s quite soft on Russia. Without a new, strong leader, our precious democratic West is likely to fall. Why?
After the invasion, Russia will control one quarter of the world’s grain supply, and nearly a third of the wheat supply. This is double what they control currently. Putin is planning for future history, beyond his personal life. Russia can wait until the world is starving. Then who will sanction them?
Training Ukrainian civilians to use rifles will not help either. These pictures may be cute but will just get them killed. The relevant skills for fighting urban guerilla war are making IEDs and suicide vests and smuggling in Stingers. Don’t paint a pretty picture on it. Here is what urban guerilla war actually looks like:
Economists use the term Net Present Value (NPV) to gauge the present value of future actions and benefits. What is the NPV of a quarter of the world’s grain supply over an indefinite period? Since food is essential, it might be as high as one quarter of the world’s total wealth. What are sanctions compared to that? Nothing. Nothing at all.
Write the President and your elected representatives today and tell them you favor using US military force to deter war in Ukraine. https://www.usa.gov/elected-officials/
Otherwise, you will witness the simultaneous invasion of the Baltics and Taiwan (where most of the semiconductors for cars and phones are made) by Russia and China, a full-scale world war, and a decline in your standard of living that will make COVID look like a paid vacation on the French Rivera.
Don’t think this can’t happen. You just don’t want it to happen. As the Pax Romana ended, so will the current era of relative peace eventually. To keep NATO from interfering in Ukraine, Putin personally oversaw drills in Belarus involving nuclear weapon delivery vehicles near NATO borders:
If nuclear deterrence “works” against NATO, Putin will be emboldened to use it again. It is just too tempting. Russia has long coveted the Baltic states, which actually separate it from a small disconnected piece of its territory:
Here are the top 8 reasons for war from https://owlcation.com/social-sciences/The-Main-Reasons-For-War
- Economic Gain. – mentioned above, doubling of grain production, control of Ukrainian gas
- Territorial Gain. – obviously applicable
- Religion. – possibly the only one not applicable to current Russia ambitions
- Nationalism. – Putin’s brand of “restore the USSR”
- Revenge. – Putin uses revenge language when discussing the dissolution of the USSR
- Civil War. – Ukraine separatists
- Revolutionary War. – also applicable to Ukraine separatists, and Russia-Ukraine generally
- Defensive War. – Russia’s most frequently stated objective
That’s 7 out of 8. Click on the video link (below missile photo) and listen to the Russian generals talk. They are clearly anxious to conquer.
Not all factions in the US see war in Ukraine as bad for them. Farmers are anxious to ramp up production to supply the grain that will be lost while Ukraine is at war in the short term.
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack told The Associated Press that a conflict in Ukraine would present an “opportunity, obviously, for us to step in and help our partners, help them through a difficult time and situation. We’ll obviously continue to look for opportunities to expand those (export) markets.” Note, he’s not talking about helping Ukraine, but other countries which buy grain from Ukraine. He’s not worried at all about 44 million Ukrainians. He was in Dubai when he said this, on a trade mission there.
If you think this sounds a bit selfish and cold, write to your elected officials. I’m quite sure those with an eye on grain sales have written to ask the US to stay neutral.
Am I some crackpot reading more into the situation than warranted? Let’s explore that. First, I have traveled to Ukraine 4 times, visiting east and west, including the now-separated territories. I’ve visited Russia more than that and am married to a Russian. I do not believe the Russian people are informed on the matter, my wife is not, and they are not in any case now capable of resisting their tyrant who has gained near absolute power. What do others say? The UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said after listening to Zelensky at the Minsk summit on Saturday the 19th:
“This is one of the most dangerous moments for European security that we’ve experienced since early in the 20th century. And we need to show unprecedented unity. There were many people who would want to think hopefully about the situation, but I think we need to prepare for the worst-case scenario, and that worst-case scenario could happen as early as next week.” – From CNN (scroll down to view post)
So, the British Foreign Secretary agrees with my pre-WWII analogy. Such people are not prone to hyperbole.
What can you do? Plenty. Share this with your friends, especially if you know anyone in Russia, and follow the link to write your Congressmen and the President. https://www.usa.gov/elected-officials/. All it would take is one US jet flying over Ukraine with anti-radar weapons loaded and the Russians would back off. Nothing would even need to be said.