Components of Transmission
A vaccine is typically reduces your chance of serious illness 30% to 70%.
Mask wearing reduces your chance of catching COVID by 75%. If you give up mask wearing after being vaccinated, you increase your risk by 5%!
Self-isolation, handwashing, minimal trips, avoiding gatherings, social distancing reduce your risk by about 75% or more. If you give those up, again you increase risk.
If you give up both masks and distancing and handwashing and resume picking your nose (we all put our hands on our faces 16 times an hour), then you give up two increments of 75% protection (total about 94%) in exchange for a 30-70% protection.
Percentage risk leads to infection as long as there are people to infect
Not only can your personal chances of getting COVID increase three fold, but everyone else’s can too. That’s why in modeling I frequently see mysterious rebounds months after vaccination begins, like this (the green bump):
That’s the US in April-May of next year, 2021, if we don’t already build a lot of immunity from infections now.
It’s like 1984 – War is Peace, Good is Evil, Low Infections Now is High Infections Later.
Vaccine can make it worse if you give up lockdown. So vaccine is not the end of lockdown. Immunity is.
The advantage of a vaccine is social. There are fewer people in the ICU. The same cases are processed over a longer period of time.
If you’ve had COVID all the costs and after effects are yours. So is immunity. It will be stronger and last longer than limited vaccine immunity.