COVID Early Unlock Texas-Mississippi

Mississippi and Texas have announce opening of all businesses and recension of mandatory mask wearing as of March 6th. I have closed my state simulation files, but just for a rough idea what this means looked at a US model run with that unlock date. In the figure below this is compared to my baseline assumption of May 1 full unlock. Scroll down for discussion.

The heavy blue dots are the baseline prediction. The green line is the baseline unlock degree (unlock on May 1). The small pink dots are a simulation run for a March 6 unlock. Cases are up around 90% in a short period of time. This would likely trigger a re-lock.

Mortality would not be up that much because many high risk persons have been vaccinated.

This simulation includes the new more contagious strains, but they seem to be spreading faster than my assumption which is that they would require 3 months to fully take over.

The full unlock case will not be realized for three reasons. First, not everyone will return to their former activities and remove their masks. Second many people have lost jobs, some businesses are permanently closed, and interstate and international travel is still restrictive. And third, major retailers (so far Starbucks and Target) have announced they will continue to require masks and limit the number of customers in stores. Others are likely to follow suit. Whether Walmart and grocery stores follow suit will be a big factor. If the effectiveness of the unlock is 50%, this produces a 15% increase in total cases (not shown).

While I could have argued a year ago for a less restrictive lockdown resulting in herd immunity during the more easily controlled summer months, I cannot argue for this early unlock now. The damage to the economy is already done and little is gained by it. I suggest most people should continue wearing masks and postpone major activity increases until May.

COVID cases from winter and testing

Based on COVID SIR model, fitting data to (a) best information about unknown/known case ratio, (b) portion of declining mortality attributed to including less critical cases in reported data, (c) projections which fit incoming new data.

I have a background in safety and modeling the combination of human behavior and complex systems (spacecraft, transportation, etc.) to determine accident or crash rate. Since late March I’ve been modeling COVID, gradually developing models as sophisticated as any available.

In July I became aware that the relative number of unknown cases was diminishing fast enough to undermine projection accuracy. I went on vacation for a month instead of looking into it, as I was totally burned out.

Recently the US and European media have been reporting “spikes” in cases and talking about severe lockdowns. That scared me, because I think lockdowns are more damaging that people realize. According to one paper, half as many people died from the lockdown in the US in March and April as from COVID for reasons such as having heart attacks and not going to the ER.

A seasonal rise in cases – similar to the flu – was baked into COVID from the start. This was WELL KNOWN by April. Many studies were done based on temperature and humidity and several papers were published. The average seasonal effect for the US is 20%, but colder regions like NY have a 30% effect.

Spikes over the summer were from “easing.” Spikes now are likely to be from cold weather.

But the spike now, should it be so large? Where I live (Houston) I do not see any “easing” going on. It gets tighter every week for the last two months.

So reluctantly I began two weeks ago to look into the changing case ratio. If you do a lot of testing, the number of reported cases goes up, even if the “actual” number of cases goes down or remains the same or only goes up slightly.

It is easy to check this. If less critical cases are included in the totals, mortality should look like it is going down. It has, in the US from over 8% of reported cases to only about 1%.

Of this factor of 8, by fitting projected model data to actual new data coming in, it appears a factor of 4 is due to increased testing, and a factor of 2 is due to improved medical understanding of and handling of critical cases. Not everyone needs intubation, and steroids keep the body from killing itself. COVID blocks a friend/foe identifier on lung cells, and the body attacks itself and dies even while the virus load is declining.

The results are startling. Our lying, hateful president is finally right about something, like a stopped clock is right twice a day. Who’d have thought.

We should not go into a severe lockdown. Instead we should skip phase 3 trials and immediately start vaccinating people. Approximately 20,000 people in the US will die for every month we delay.

We’ve never had a situation like this is vaccination history. We’ve had situations where the number of people who might die from a bad vaccine was a few hundred or thousand, and the number of lives saved by the vaccine was lower, maybe a few dozen. But in this case the numbers are reversed. Dramatically.

Forks in the Road 2014 & 2019

I was investigating whether other market segments were keeping up with the S&P 500, which seems to be ignoring the plight of ordinary people and charging ahead in spite of COVID-19. To my surprise, the biggest forks were in mid-2014 and early-2019.

In 2020, there was a sharp divergence with the S&P 500 getting ahead in April by about 8%, but after that the various segments mostly came along together:

Comparison of large and small and micro caps and US vs. world markets, 2020, from Yahoo Finance

But the forks in 2014 and 2019 both have lasted up through the present:

Same comparison from 2015

In 2014, mid-year, it is easy to identify suspect events that led to a continuing 9.5% per year differential, with emerging markets and world-other-than-US essentially flat while the US grew rapidly:

  1. Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russia
  2. Emergence of ISIS and counter attacks
  3. Unrest in Yemen
  4. Fracking boom and downturn in oil prices

These problems led to mass migrations, affecting Europe. So Russia, North Africa, and the Middle East have all been in turmoil since. The crash in oil prices caused economic decline in parts of the Middle East that avoided war, and in Venezuela, while the US benefitted from fracking and becoming an energy exporter.

If you have other ideas for the fork in 2014, please leave a comment below.

The causes of the 2019 fork inside the US, which happened early in the year, January or February, are harder to identify. Democrats took over the House of Representatives, causing some stalemate in government. This gradually led to focusing on the border wall and impeachment instead of governance. But did this really affect the fortunes of smaller companies more than larger ones? The mechanism is unclear to me.

It is interesting to plot the price of oil over these periods.  There is a correlation with both 2014 and 2019, which would seem to indicate that the world economy does better with a higher oil price.  But of course this may be a consequence, not a cause.

Oil prices last ten years, from

Perhaps you can think of another correlate. Please leave a comment below, and a chart if possible.

The Sun-Dried Tomato Violin

My 5-nearly-6 year old son Grandon complained his little 1/8 violin was boring.

Mostly he meant the sound, but the grain-less orange finish isn’t exciting either, so I decided to use it for a refinishing project.

My Sun-Dried Tomato Violin
Actual sun-dried tomatoes

(Grandon also has another view of it – looks like a volcano eruption. Well, if 5 year old’s had money I’d be a rich violin maker. I can do eruptions!)

I ran out of finish remover and tried to cover the remains of the orange with a dark brown stain and paint artificial grain. But it kept coming off.

Frustrated I (mostly) removed that and covered it in dark red, by go-to cover-up-mistakes violin color scheme. Hmm, not bad. Scrape off the edges to give it a little definition. I was going to stain those caramel and blend it, but I decided to ask Grandon. He likes things better when he chooses.

Keep the red and nearly-white. OK, so just a little Tung oil for gloss and done, except for the waiting. Neither of us wanted to wait more than a day, so I hung it in the sun to dry.

Outside, hanging in a bush, it just looked like a tomato drying in the sun. So I asked Grandon about the name. Keep that too. Thus I present to you, the Sun Dried Tomato Violin! (Awww…, thank you, thank you, really, it wasn’t anything, just covering up mistakes)

Back view, center left, looks just like the tomatoes

COVID Policy is about the Euphoria of Ruling the World

Every two-bit official can now order the world around them to stop. Just. Stop. Even judges. Doesn’t have to be a governor or mayor.

Forget the logic and think about how that feels for a minute. Consciously I’m sure they agonize over it. But the power is incredible. No one is unaffected by that sort of power.

If they admitted they didn’t need to be giving such orders, they’d suddenly feel empty and useless. Kind of like I did for a year after retirement. They don’t have to be getting anything else out of it to get hooked. Just the Endorphins. What does an alcoholic get? Drunk, broke, divorced, cited for DWI, but they can’t quit. It’s the same.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Thursday decreed that face masks must be worn in all counties with over 20 coronavirus cases. USNews

Maybe Texas governor Abbott can’t walk (no disrespect intended) but he can order you to wear a mask (no objection, actually) and not gather in groups of more than 10 people (not doing that either, but clearly somebody was).

The Texas forecast was not that bad. I’ve been modeling COVID trajectories for 4 months full time (yeah, retirement flexibility). I’ve published 3 papers on my work and built an international website. Let’s look at the EFFECT of the recent order. Previously, Texas had a pretty good forecast:

We were at the peak this weekend (July 4th) and economic recovery was a good 30% (of a year lockdown losses). Hardly any fall or winter cases despite continual step increases in easing.

Here is the transmission rate chart. It suggest the order was extraordinarily effective. Those points at the end are falling off a cliff:

Looks about like 10% more locked than before. Let’s assume by school in September some unlock about to the previous level will be attempted again. Here is what that looks like.

Oh look Mom, I made the number of deaths go UP 25% by locking down tighter. What?

Yes. Well, the near term cases fall off a cliff, so of course Texans will demand to be unlocked, and that’s what Gov. Abbott promised, “billing the measure as a requirement to avoid another economic shutdown“. There are already mask protests.

Look how slowly cases creep back even though the unlock is the same as now, and it’s high season for Coronavirus, winter. By March, when hopefully we are vaccinating people, a minor hump backs down. That’s when I think we’ll really let the horse out of the barn. And despite a vaccine cases will rise nearly to present levels, and the peak will be broader and thus more deadly.

If you think the level of information on coronavirus is a bit iffy (not the raw data, the inability to use it to make decent projections), then take my 12 minute survey which includes a video explanation (5 minutes) of how this stuff works, and gives you interactive access to the model right in your web browser. Uses Texas for an example, but you can type in the name of any state or country and it comes right up. Put in your own unlock levels and see if you’d make the grade as an epidemic manager! Ultimate gaming! Life and death reality! Click to begin your journey.

Let’s end Optimism (before it ends us!)

Protesters demonstrate against the national security law in Hong Kong (01/07/20)
Democracy protestors in Hong Kong defying both COVID and a new law promising life sentences to protest removal of pro-democracy books from libraries, BBC

What? Yes, not a misprint. The handover of Hong Kong to China occurred 23 years ago this month. Oh, sure, it was ill-gotten in an Opium War. So what? China had been ripping off The West in trade for 5000 years and refused to accept any payment but gold for tea.

Gold for tea? You’ve got to be kidding? No, actually, not. Dire circumstances called for dire measures. You can’t really run a global empire without caffeine.

In 1842 in the Treaty of Nanking HK was ceded “in perpetuity.” By 1898 the British, feeling guilty already, rephrased it as a 99 year lease. Brilliant. No wonder the British Empire is no more. I could say something, maybe about Queens or something, but I’ll just let you ponder it. Napoleon at least lost fair and square in a fight.

A little connection with America too. Remember the Boston Tea Party? To help pay for their tea, the British Royal shareholders were granting the East India Company a tax-monopoly on tea imports to the colonies. Exploitative bourgeois American businessmen and slaveowners like George W. didn’t go for it, and fought an 8 year war to protect their own interests. The proletariat went along because they had all lost relatives and land in the French & Indian War (my ancestor in South Carolina – see you didn’t even know the war went that far south).

The real reason the British gave Hong Kong back was they were physically unable to keep it. It is barren rock. All the food and water are in Kowloon and China, which is not Argentina (Falklands, remember?), promised to march in the PLA. See The Globalist for this admission. Stuck with a poor strategic decision, in 1898 the British invented the “fiction” of the 99 year lease thinking they would solve the problem later, not really give it back. But later, beat by two World Wars, seeing the US unwilling to go against China in Korea, they started optimistically rationalizing.

Later, during the Thatcher era, and still later when accomplishing the handover, British desire to sell to the Chinese market was used as leverage by China to secure the Hong Kong deal. The British, in a way, simply sold it. Businesses in Hong Kong also were willing to kowtow to China for profit. See The Last Governor.

But the rationale was that China was softening, and this would soften them even faster. Hong Kong would not become like China. China would become, at least “more like” Hong Kong.

Even the Chinese were overly optimistic. “In 1984, China’s then senior leader Deng Xiaoping told Margaret Thatcher that if China did not become more like Hong Kong when it was time for the area to be fully integrated with China, then they would probably have to wait a bit for the transposition.Even the protesters are overly optimistic:

If we burn you burn with us.

The end of the Cold War, the belief COVID could be “contained,” the idea Democracy was a cure for all ills, that Globalism would make people more cooperative not just extorted and defiant? Optimism will end us.

Why I support COVID parties

I am 69 and isolating. But the cost to me of a year of isolation, at 69, is maybe 12% of my remaining lifetime.

US male life expectancy 78.5 years

My risk of dying from COVID in Texas is two orders of magnitude lower than that:

click for detailed Texas risk profile

My wife, 46, does not want to get COVID. That is the primary determinant of my isolation. If we already had COVID, I could send my son to school in mid August without worrying. We get everything. He won’t follow social distancing at age 6. The small private school will try, and most likely fail.

In Oxford, MS there were some large fraternity rush parties, superspreading events. Here is the county’s forecast following those events. The state forecast is similar, since those kids carry it everywhere. It wasn’t a deliberate COVID party, but my sister, who lives in Oxford and has a chronic lung condition AND a son entering college there, says there have been COVID parties among that age group.

click to enlarge at

Zoom in and you’ll see they are half way to the peak. There is no stopping it. Then by early August they are done.

I wear a mask. These kids don’t bother me. Scientific American says that the way this works is, for future generations babies will be born not immune, they will get COVID and few of them will be seriously ill.

That and not a vaccine is what will control it. It is a free country. If the young are willing let them.

Hospital resources, you say. 80% of people on ventilators were dying. Up to 50% of people on ventilators for that long will die if nothing is wrong with them. ICU availability is no cure. It’s a token effort, to make society feel like it is doing all it can. We’ve since learned most patients just need oxygen, not tubes and blowers. It’s a guilt trip. But why?

In a globalist society, everyone has to conform to the same ideas. That’s what makes it globalist. There is no room for freedom. For choice. Implicitly those leading the COVID fight are globalists, and compliance is more important than effectiveness.

There is something called the Fermi Paradox. It is the mystery of why, if planets are so common, don’t we see any galactic colonizing civilizations? They should be crawling all over the place.

The Fermi Paradox - YouTube

Well they aren’t. Possibly because to surmount interstellar travel civilizations must first become global. But global civilizations no longer can value diversity and fail from choosing a single approach to every problem until they choose wrong. For an introduction see Where are all the aliens? (Kurzgesagt YouTube science channel).

The bottom line: Within 3 weeks of a teen becoming infected at a COVID party, I can no longer get it from them. And their immunity reduces transmission for everyone. As long as they haven’t had COVID, they are dangerous to me.

That state that had the COVID parties? They are done. Today is their peak. COVID will decline so fast there it will make your head swim:

Why a vaccine will make you more likely to get COVID

Components of Transmission

A vaccine is typically reduces your chance of serious illness 30% to 70%.

Mask wearing reduces your chance of catching COVID by 75%. If you give up mask wearing after being vaccinated, you increase your risk by 5%!

Self-isolation, handwashing, minimal trips, avoiding gatherings, social distancing reduce your risk by about 75% or more. If you give those up, again you increase risk.

If you give up both masks and distancing and handwashing and resume picking your nose (we all put our hands on our faces 16 times an hour), then you give up two increments of 75% protection (total about 94%) in exchange for a 30-70% protection.

Percentage risk leads to infection as long as there are people to infect

Not only can your personal chances of getting COVID increase three fold, but everyone else’s can too. That’s why in modeling I frequently see mysterious rebounds months after vaccination begins, like this (the green bump):

Everything you want to know about cases trajectory constraints
click to see larger and updated on

That’s the US in April-May of next year, 2021, if we don’t already build a lot of immunity from infections now.

It’s like 1984 – War is Peace, Good is Evil, Low Infections Now is High Infections Later.

Vaccine can make it worse if you give up lockdown. So vaccine is not the end of lockdown. Immunity is.

The advantage of a vaccine is social. There are fewer people in the ICU. The same cases are processed over a longer period of time.

If you’ve had COVID all the costs and after effects are yours. So is immunity. It will be stronger and last longer than limited vaccine immunity.

The Erasure of All Things

Aunt Jemima (cornbread mix, biscuit mix, syrup, etc.) as well as Uncle Ben’s Rice will be renamed, and re-invented (two different companies involved, Uncle Ben following hours after Pepsico (Quaker) announced the Aunt Jemima re-do.

So … what? If sales were down, sure. And if so say that. These two stereotypes distill ideas from my childhood that have kept me favorably disposed toward blacks (African Americans, whatever they want to be called). I no longer see any reason for remaining favorably disposed. It is just an attempt to erase history, and it will become an attempt to erase non-black races. One has to be real careful not to use race for discrimination, and going around labeling things based on race is discrimination. If it starts, it is really hard to stop. Be sure to scroll down…


So what’s next?

Obviously, Dolly Madison. Here is the history of the brand images.

First, there is the real Dolley Madison, wife of President Madison, for whom the brand was named when introduced in 1937. But the brand was actually used in a movie in 1932 before it existed. The real historical Dolley Madison:


Wow, look at her expression. Quite full of herself. And that dress is as sexist as they come. So she was replaced with something a little tamer and a little blonder:


The bust line is quite a bit higher, and the smile is more innocent than plotting and sexy. But soon this was too racy as well.


Oh, well, drawn not photographed. The implicit sexuality toned down by the presence of the child in the background. By the way, humanity has figured out how to have children without sex, so I’m pretty sure something so historically conflicted and associated with exploitation will soon be taboo. The evolution continues toward abstraction and innocence:


Even more cartoon like, not realistically drawn. Sure, they are holding hands, but there is no sexual connotation. The real Dolley Madison must be rolling over in her grave.


Hmm, endorsement from famous cartoon characters. In the lower drawing, black and white line drawings. Even less realistic. But look at the icon at the top. This is what Dolley->Dolly leads to. First you drop the e, then you drop the whole body. This is hardly even an icon for a computer program:


But there is something fatally wrong still. She is still WHITE and a female that we cannot be sure will not marry a male and have a heterosexual family. We must set all doubts to rest. I understand Dolly Madison plans to announce a name change tomorrow and has hired these two spokespersons to restore flesh and blood honest characters to the cartoons:


I have it on reliable authority from the galactic forecasting computer that by 2120 the following will be the logo for the DDDB (D’Matis Desexualized Deracialized Bakery):


Women leadership styles in 2020

Mayor and police chief of Seattle.  Battered by the action. The topic of “Thelma and Louise” came up in the press conference.  In case you’ve been vacationing on another planet, 5 blocks of Seattle declared independence from the U.S.

Thelma and Louise

Something is wrong with this picture.  The police chief just does not look like she needs to be told Black Lives Matter.  Anyway, moving right along . . .

Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota.  If the voters want to distance or not distance over COVID, that’s their business.  But if they decide to throw rocks, well, the National Guard has already been called.

Noem and the Guard

So much for the police department.  Just skipping right over that move.  I guess she figured they already failed if the protestors got that far.  Um, yeah, probably.

Here are just a few of the possible Biden picks for VP.


Uh, can someone remind me of what any of them have actually done, besides the one at the upper right.  I know she totally blew her own presidential bid with weird ideas and gaming her genetic family tree.  Some of the odds makers think Michelle Obama.  That’d be odd.  Well, it doesn’t matter.  This next chic is going to roll over all of them.


Kold Killer, she is.  She might look flimsy, but I bet she’s got an implant in her head that activates nuclear missiles.  Probably she’s already done away with her brother.

I have just one question.  The world ruled by women was supposed to be, I don’t know, “different” or something.  How is any of this different?